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利用陕西省及其周边44个气象站点1955—2013年气象资料分析了该区域的平均气温、降水量的时空变化规律;利用Thornthwaite memorial模型并结合EOF、R/S分析以及相关分析对陕西省气候生产潜力时空序列进行研究,在此基础上探讨了陕西省的气候资源利用率情况。结果表明:1)59年来陕西省气温呈增加趋势,为0.19℃/10年,年降水量下降率为0.84 mm/10年;2)陕西省的气候生产潜力微弱增加,上升率为1.31kg/(10年·hm~2),区域差异性明显,东南高,中部偏西区域低;3)农业气候生产潜力主要受到降水量和气温的制约,其中降水量居于主要限制地位,气候生产潜力大约有94%受到气温和降水的共同影响的,未来气候生产潜力呈增加趋势。59年来,陕西省粮食产量与气候生产潜力的相关性不显著,但两者的波动特点相似,其气候利用率逐年代增加,研究区未来仍存在作物可能增产空间。
Based on the meteorological data of 44 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province and its surroundings from 1955 to 2013, the temporal and spatial variation of the average temperature and precipitation in the region were analyzed. Thornthwaite memorial model, EOF, R / S analysis and correlation analysis were used to analyze the climate change in Shaanxi Province Production potential space-time series of research, on the basis of this study, the utilization of climate resources in Shaanxi Province. The results showed that: 1) The temperature in Shaanxi Province increased in 59 years, which was 0.19 ℃ / 10 years, and the annual precipitation decrease rate was 0.84 mm / 10 years; 2) The potential of climate productivity increased slightly in Shaanxi Province, with the increasing rate of 1.31 kg / (10 years · hm ~ 2), with obvious regional differences, high in the southeast and low in the middle west; 3) The potential for agricultural climate production is mainly constrained by precipitation and temperature, of which precipitation predominates and the potential of climate production is about 94% are affected by the combination of temperature and precipitation, and the potential for climate productivity will increase in the future. In the past 59 years, there was no significant correlation between grain yield and climate productivity potential in Shaanxi Province. However, both of them have similar volatility characteristics. Their climate utilization rate has increased year by year. There may still be space for crops to increase in the future.