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目的探讨影响老年中晚期前列腺患者预后的因素。方法选取2010年1月至2015年6月间收治的80例老年中晚期前列腺癌患者,通过电话随访和住院监测患者预后情况,运用Logistic分析法对老年中晚期前列腺癌患者预后影响因素构建回归模型,绘制受试者工作特征曲线,确定预后模型的最佳临界值。结果单因素Logistic回归分析显示,全雄激素阻断、Glesaon评分和ABCD系统分期为老年中晚期前列腺癌预后的保护因素,前列腺特异性抗原(PSA)水平与骨转移为前列腺癌预后的危险因素。经多因素Logistic回归分析显示,PSA(OR=3.996,P<0.001)、Glesaon评分(OR=4.126,P<0.001)、骨转移(OR=1.512,P=0.002)、临床分期(OR=2.146,P<0.001)、全雄激素阻断(OR=4.296,P=0.002)为影响老年中晚期前列腺癌预后的独立因素,受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.893。结论研究中拟合的回归方程预测准确率较高,对老年中晚期前列腺癌预后的判断有一定临床参考价值。
Objective To explore the factors that affect the prognosis of elderly patients with advanced prostate. Methods From January 2010 to June 2015, 80 elderly patients with advanced prostate cancer were enrolled in this study. The prognosis of patients with advanced prostate cancer was analyzed by telephone follow-up and inpatient monitoring. Logistic regression was used to establish the regression model , Draw the working characteristic curve of the subject and determine the best critical value of the prognosis model. Results Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that androgen blockade, Glesaon score and ABCD system were the protective factors for the prognosis of advanced prostate cancer. The level of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and bone metastasis were the risk factors for the prognosis of prostate cancer. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that PSA (OR = 3.996, P <0.001), Glesaon score (OR = 4.126, P <0.001), bone metastasis (OR = 4.296, P = 0.002), an independent factor affecting the prognosis of elderly patients with advanced stage prostate cancer. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.893. Conclusions The regression equation fitted in the study has a high prediction accuracy and a certain clinical value in judging the prognosis of advanced prostate cancer.