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1前言自然因素历来剧烈地影响着传染病的流行过程，尤其是气候、地理等因素。当代全球气候变暖，已成为举世关注的严重现实，因为全球变暖不像洪水、地震等自然灾害只是急剧、短暂的影响，而是进展和持续的长期作用，会突出地影响到传染病病原体的存活变异、动物活动区域变迁、
1 Introduction Natural factors have historically drastically affected the epidemiology of infectious diseases, especially climatic, geographical and other factors. The current global warming has become a serious reality that has drawn worldwide attention because natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes are just a rapid and temporary impact of global warming but rather a long-term progress and a long-term effect that will have a major impact on infectious disease pathogens Survival variation, animal activity area changes,