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通过对LNG储罐泄漏事故树模型进行分析,得到LNG储罐泄漏事故树的最小割集与结构重要度,确定了LNG储罐泄漏失效系统中的薄弱环节。同时由于LNG储罐的泄漏原因复杂性,而事故树中事件只有正常和失效两态,与工程实际不相符,使得事故树在应用于LNG储罐泄漏原因分析中受到了限制。为了能够提高LNG储罐安全失效分析的准确性,通过贝叶斯网络对LNG储罐事故树的二态性进行了修正。结果表明,修正后的贝叶斯网络模型更加符合工程实际。
By analyzing the LNG storage tank accident tree model, the minimum cut set and structure importance of the LNG storage tank leakage accident tree are obtained, and the weak links in LNG storage tank leakage failure system are determined. At the same time, due to the complexity of the leakage of LNG storage tank, the incident tree has only normal and failure states, which is inconsistent with the actual project, which makes the accident tree limited in the application of LNG storage tank leakage analysis. In order to improve the accuracy of LNG tank failure analysis, the binary state of LNG tank accident tree was modified by Bayesian network. The results show that the modified Bayesian network model is more in line with engineering practice.