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本文以经济发达、地方债务庞杂的江苏省为例,依据近十年《江苏省统计年鉴》所记载的权威数据,探究了省内三大区域(苏南苏中苏北)地方负债的经济绩效,同时创造性的建立起地方债务风险度量模型,尝试对地方债务乐观程度进行指数化度量。对经济绩效的研究,笔者利用了Solow模型的扩展形式,并借助Eviews软件进行计量分析。对地方债务风险度量则选取了AHP模型,从经济、财政、负债多个角度系统度量了地方债务风险乐观程度。
Based on the authoritative data recorded in the “Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province” in the past decade, this paper explores the economic performance of local liabilities in the three major regions of the province (Jiangsu, Jiangsu, Jiangsu, Northern Jiangsu and Northern China) by taking Jiangsu Province with developed economy and local debts as an example. , Meanwhile creatively set up a local debt risk measurement model and try to index the optimistic degree of local debt. The study of economic performance, the author uses the extended form of Solow model, and with Eviews software for econometric analysis. AHP model is selected for local debt risk measurement, and the optimistic degree of local debt risk is systematically measured from many aspects of economy, finance and debt.