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从可靠性理论和交通网络流特性出发,概述了国内外关于能力可靠性研究方面的最新进展。以铁路路网系统运输能力系列概念为基础,提出路网系统运输能力可靠性定义,并分析其产生原因。考虑到铁路网实际运营的各种不确定性因素,提出基于概率的不确定性情景的路网系统运输能力可靠性计算模型,并以K短路和复合遗传算法为核心进行编程计算,算例表明,该理论及模型正确,计算结果较符合铁路网现状,为铁路路网规划和管理提供客观量化依据,具有理论和应用价值。
Based on the reliability theory and traffic network flow characteristics, the latest progress on the study of capability reliability is summarized. Based on the series concepts of railway network transportation capacity, this paper puts forward the definition of reliability of transportation capacity of railway network system and analyzes its causes. Considering all kinds of uncertainties in the actual operation of the railway network, this paper proposes a reliability calculation model for the transportation capacity of the road network based on the probability uncertainty scenario. The K short circuit and the composite genetic algorithm are used as the core to calculate the reliability. , The theory and model are correct, the calculation results are more in line with the railway network status quo, providing objective quantitative basis for the planning and management of railway network, with theoretical and practical value.