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在本文中,我们研究垄断和竞争的情况下,不同类型的预期对竞争性双边平台均衡配置结果的影响。平台开发商这边经常具有响应性的预期。与此相对应,另一边(消费者用户)可能具有更为复杂的预期形态——响应性预期和被动消极的预期与存在于这两种极端之中混合预期或谨慎预期。我们发现,在一个具有先动者的竞争性平台,具有被动性预期的用户越多就越有可能获得或者巩固其市场支配地位。相比之下,响应性预期用户越多,竞争性的市场结构会因此而形成。这是因为,更多的响应性预期扩大了价格下降的影响,进一步强化平台偏离现有均衡的降价激励。对用户预期形态分类进行的扩展性研究,我们进一步地发现在考虑了网络外部性情形下的市场均衡结果的配置取决于市场规模、平台差异化、用户预期分布形态等参数的门槛值设置。而且,可以改变网络效应对市场结构的影响。这一发现,再次证实市场结构的内生性特征。在这些发现的基础上,提供了带用户预期形态下双边平台竞争的若干应用。
In this paper, we study the impact of different types of expectations on the outcome of a balanced bilateral platform configuration under monopoly and competition conditions. Platform developers here often have responsive expectations. Correspondingly, the other side (consumer users) may have more complex patterns of expectation - reactive expectation and passive negative expectation and exist in these two extremes mixed expectations or cautious expectation. We find that in a competitive platform with first mover, the more users have the expectation of passivity, the more likely they are to acquire or consolidate their market dominance. In contrast, the more responsive users are expected, the more competitive the market structure will be. This is because more responsiveness is expected to widen the impact of price declines and further strengthen the platform’s deviation from the existing balanced price-cutting incentives. We further find that the allocation of market equilibrium under the circumstance of network externalities depends on the setting of the threshold of parameters such as market size, platform differentiation and users’ expected distribution patterns. Moreover, the impact of the network effect on the market structure can be changed. This finding once again confirms the endogenous nature of the market structure. Based on these findings, several applications are provided that compete with the bilateral platforms in the user’s expected form.