得益于国家扩大内需政策的拉动,钢铁的下游需求逐渐回暖,钢铁行业呈现弱势复苏态势。今年前5个月,我国钢铁生产在全球一枝独秀,占据了世界产量的半壁江山,钢材价格在4月中旬完成金融危机爆发以来的二次探底后,开始向上缓慢回升。然而,外需不振和产能过剩的压力将考验钢价后续上涨的持续时间和幅度,在房地产市场回暖、基础设施建设项目渐入用钢期的带动下,钢材品种间的分化也将进一步加深,长材有望出现趋势性上涨,而板材上升空间不大。 Thanks to the national policy of boosting domestic demand, the downstream demand of steel industry gradually picks up and the steel industry shows a weak recovery trend. In the first 5 months of this year, the steel production in China stood out in the world and accounted for half of the world’s output. Steel prices started to slowly rise after the bottom of the financial crisis was completed in mid-April. However, the pressure of sluggish supply and overcapacity will test the duration and magnitude of the subsequent rise in steel prices. With the real estate market picking up and infrastructure projects gradually entering the steel market, the differentiation among varieties of steel products will further deepen. Timber is expected to show a rising trend, while the plate up little room.