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中国收入分配不平等持续在国际警戒线以上,对经济社会的可持续发展造成极大的阻碍和不确定性。本文从宏观视角,构建一个包含劳动者和资本所有者的RBC模型,并引入公共支出冲击,从理论上分析公共支出变化对劳动者和资本所有者收入分配的动态影响路径。在此基础上,利用中国1978-2014年的相关经济数据,估计和校准模型相关参数,实证分析中国收入分配长期稳态水平和短期演化趋势。实证结果显示:(1)长期内,公共支出对劳动者和资本所有者收入分配格局不产生影响,在现有偏好和技术不变条件下,两者收入分配比率收敛至2:3;(2)中国收入分配仍处于库兹涅茨曲线的上升阶段;(3)增加公共支出会使得劳动者和资本所有者收入分配差距扩大。基于上述结论,本文指出,政府应调整公共支出结构,使得公共支出更多流向提高人力资本的领域。
Unequal income distribution in China continues above the international warning line, causing great obstacles and uncertainties to the sustainable economic and social development. This paper constructs a RBC model that includes workers and capital owners from the macroscopic perspective and introduces the impact of public expenditure on the theoretical analysis of the dynamic impact of public expenditure changes on the income distribution of laborers and capital owners. On this basis, the relevant economic data of China from 1978 to 2014 are used to estimate and calibrate the relevant parameters of the model, and to analyze the long-term steady-state level and short-term evolution trend of income distribution in China. The empirical results show that: (1) In the long run, public expenditure has no effect on the income distribution pattern of laborers and capital owners. Under the existing preferences and technology invariance, the income distribution ratio converges to 2: 3; (2) ) China’s income distribution is still in the rising stage of the Kuznets Curve. (3) Increasing public expenditure will widen the income distribution gap between workers and capital owners. Based on the above conclusion, this paper points out that the government should adjust the structure of public expenditure so as to make the public expenditure more flow to the field of improving human capital.