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本文运用索洛残差法对武汉市1979～2004年期间科技进步对经济增长的贡献率进行估算,回归方程的邹氏检验结果表明估计参数具有不稳定性,转折点在1991年。分两个时期估计科技进步的贡献率,其结果显示:1979～1991科技贡献率波动幅度较大且低于资本的贡献率,经济增长主要依靠资本投入。1992～2004科技进步对产出的贡献率很高,这一时期它是推动经济增长的主要因素,但自2001年以来,其贡献率在逐年下降,经济增长正丧失技术进步的成分。
In this paper, Solow residual error method was used to estimate the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to economic growth in Wuhan from 1979 to 2004. The Zou test of the regression equation shows that the estimated parameters are unstable. The turning point was in 1991. The results show that the contribution rate of science and technology from 1979 to 1991 was larger and lower than the contribution rate of capital, and the economic growth mainly depended on capital investment. From 1992 to 2004, the contribution of science and technology to output was very high. During this period, it was a major factor in promoting economic growth. However, since 2001, its contribution rate has been declining year by year, and its economic growth is losing its technological progress.