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本文研究了川滇地区8个主要地震带的累积应变释放与大震的关系。每次地震的应变释放量由E~(1/2)确定,E为地震能量,LogE=11.8+1.5M(尔格)。结果表明:1900年后的7次大震(M_s≥7)都发生在累积应变释放相对偏低的地带;一般来说,这些地带是未来大震的孕育区;各地震带累积应变释放总量大致趋于一个常量。应用线性流变体模型对上述结果进行了解释。作为一种尝试,初步估计了川滇未来大震的危险区。
In this paper, the relationship between cumulative strain release and major earthquakes in eight major seismic belts in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces is studied. The amount of strain released for each earthquake is determined by E ~ (1/2), and E is the seismic energy. LogE = 11.8 + 1.5M (erg). The results show that all seven major earthquakes (M_s≥7) occurred after 1900, with relatively low cumulative strain release; in general, these areas are the inoculation areas for future large earthquakes; and the cumulative total strain release Generally approximate to a constant. The above results are explained using the linear flow model. As an attempt, a preliminary estimate of the danger zone of the future earthquake in Sichuan, Yunnan.