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2004年铜市整体为牛市格局,3000美元以上的高点屡屡出现,价格主要维持高位区间运行,但高位振荡明显加剧也显示市场进入高风险区域。全球铜供求关系紧张和美元贬值是支持期铜价格长期走高的主要因素。基金买盘的推动对铜价形成推波助澜的作用。展望2005年宏观基本面:全球范围内货币紧缩政策将会令经济增长速度减缓,将直接导致对基本金属需求增长速度的减缓。此外,有关人民币升值的预期也令国内经济形势充满着不确定性。展望2005年的铜市:随着产能的恢复和增长,铜的供给能力会得到很大的提高,预计2005年下半年全球铜市场将会基本实现供求平衡,因此,铜价在2005年内见顶回落是可以预期的。不过,在2005年上半年里供应短缺因素仍会对铜价和现货升水形成支持,可以预期在上半年里期铜价仍会维持高位振荡的格局,也有再创新高的可能,年内高点预计会在3、4月份出现。
Copper market as a whole in 2004 the pattern of the bull market, the high point of more than 3,000 US dollars appear repeatedly, the price mainly to maintain the high range operation, but significantly increased high volatility also shows the market into high-risk areas. Tight global supply and demand of copper and the depreciation of the dollar are the main factors that support the long-term copper price rise. The buying of funds helped push the price of copper. Looking forward to the macro fundamentals in 2005: The monetary tightening around the world will slow down economic growth, which will directly result in a slowdown in the growth rate of demand for basic metals. In addition, the expected appreciation of the renminbi also makes the domestic economic situation full of uncertainty. Looking forward to the copper market in 2005: With the recovery and growth of production capacity, the supply capacity of copper will be greatly enhanced. It is estimated that the global copper market will basically achieve a balance between supply and demand in the second half of 2005. Therefore, the price of copper peaked in 2005 It is expected. However, supply shortages in the first half of 2005 will still support copper price and spot premium. It is expected that during the first half of the year copper prices will remain at a high level and may hit a new high. The high of the year is expected to be at March and April appear.