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CTCS-3级车地通信子系统是列控系统的重要组成部分之一,且列控系统需求的列车位置、行车许可、临时限速等安全信息都由其提供,因此,对其进行可靠性分析具有十分重要的意义。采用贝叶斯网络对系统进行可靠性分析,并对维修方式进行了讨论。首先,根据车地通信子系统的功能与结构构建其贝叶斯网络模型。然后,综合考虑维修性、共因失效等因素,对车地通信子系统进行可靠性分析。最后,在可靠性分析的基础上运用模糊综合评判法对其进行维修决策。结果表明:利用贝叶斯网络的双向推理,不仅可以计算出车地通信子系统的可靠度,还可以有效识别系统的薄弱环节;若不考虑车地通信系统冗余结构中的共因失效,则得到的可靠性指标会偏于乐观。地面GSM-R单元失效是引起车地通信子系统失效的关键事件,因此针对此薄弱环节进行状态维修检查能够有效降低事故的发生概率。
CTCS-3 level vehicle communication subsystem is one of the important parts of train control system, and train control system requirements of the train location, driving permits, temporary speed limit and other safety information is provided, therefore, its reliability Analysis is of great importance. The Bayesian network is used to analyze the reliability of the system and the maintenance methods are discussed. Firstly, the Bayesian network model is constructed according to the function and structure of the car communication subsystem. Then, considering the factors of maintainability and total factor failure, the reliability analysis of vehicle communication subsystem is carried out. Finally, based on the reliability analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to make maintenance decision. The results show that using Bayesian network bidirectional reasoning not only can calculate the reliability of the vehicle-ground communication subsystem, but also can effectively identify the weak links of the system. Without considering the common cause failure in the redundant structure of the vehicle-ground communication system, The reliability index obtained will be partial to optimism. The failure of terrestrial GSM-R unit is the key event that causes the failure of the terrestrial communication subsystem. Therefore, the status maintenance check for this weak link can effectively reduce the probability of accident.