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2016年前三个季度,外部经济运行仍然平庸。中国以房地产市场为代表的周期性行业处于本轮短周期顶部。房地产价格高涨并带动整个工业部门反弹,工业品价格和工业企业利润反弹到较高水平。未来一到两个季度,中国经济将进入房地产和信贷驱动的经济周期下行阶段。当前应该克服金融危机焦虑症,在供给侧结构性改革中,补短板应该放在首位,其次是降成本。去产能、去杠杆和去库存应主要借助市场自发的调整力量和恰当的货币和金融监管环境逐步推进。
In the first three quarters of 2016, the external economy remained mediocre. China’s cyclical industry represented by the real estate market is at the top of the current short cycle. Real estate prices rose and led the entire industrial sector rebound, industrial products prices and industrial enterprise profits rebounded to a higher level. In the next one to two quarters, the Chinese economy will enter a downward phase of the real estate and credit-driven business cycle. At present, the financial crisis should be overcome with anxiety disorders. In the supply-side structural reform, shortcomings should be put in the first place, followed by cost reduction. De-capacity, deleveraging and de-stocking should be gradually pushed forward mainly by the spontaneous adjustment of markets and the proper monetary and financial regulatory environment.