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目的运用自回归滑动平均混合模型(ARIMA)对长沙市天心区的肺结核发病数进行曲线拟合与模拟,为肺结核防治工作提供科学依据。方法通过分析2003-2010年天心区肺结核发病数据,分模型识别、参数估计、模型诊断3个步骤建立ARIMA季节性模型,利用2011年1-4月天心区肺结核发病数据进行模型验证,并预测未来1年的月发病数。结果 ARIMA(1,0,1)×ARIMA(0,1,1)12模型较好地拟合了2003-2010年天心区肺结核发病情况,其计算2011年1-4月天心区肺结核发病数的模拟值(38、32、41、47例)变化趋势基本符合实际值(34、44、46、48例)变化趋势。未来1年(2011年5月至2012年4月)肺结核发病数将略有增加,月发病数均值为44例。结论 ARIMA(1,0,1)×ARIMA(0,1,1)12模型能较好地拟合天心区肺结核发病情况,可以用于天心区肺结核发病数的预测。
Objective To curve fit and simulate the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Tianxin District of Changsha City using the autoregressive moving average mixed model (ARIMA) to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of tuberculosis. Methods The ARIMA seasonal model was established by analyzing the data of incidence of tuberculosis in Tianxin District from 2003 to 2010, and the model was divided into three steps: model identification, parameter estimation and model diagnosis. The model was validated by using the data of incidence of tuberculosis in Tianxin District from January to April in 2011, 1 year the number of monthly incidence. Results The ARIMA (1,0,1) × ARIMA (0,1,1) 12 model fitted well the incidence of tuberculosis in Tianxin District from 2003 to 2010, and calculated the incidence of tuberculosis in Tianxin District from January to April in 2011 The trend of the simulated values (38, 32, 41, 47 cases) basically met the trend of the actual value (34,44,46,48). The number of tuberculosis cases will increase slightly in the next one year (May 2011 to April 2012) with a monthly incidence of 44 cases. Conclusion ARIMA (1,0,1) × ARIMA (0,1,1) 12 model can well fit the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Tianxin District and can be used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in Tianxin District.