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近年来,我国毛皮及其制品业出口增长较快,但从历史客观角度分析,我国毛皮产品出口波动较大,本文在分析2000—2014年我国毛皮产品出口贸易规模与市场结构特征的基础上,将我国毛皮产品出口划分为4个时期,同时结合联合国贸易数据库数据,运用恒定市场份额模型CMS对中国毛皮产品出口贸易效应进行分解和量化分析,探寻我国毛皮产品出口波动的原因及内在机理。研究结果表明,无论是在出口增长期还是萧条回落期,综合竞争力效应和增长效应都是影响中国毛皮产品出口的主要因素,其中综合竞争力效应影响力略强于增长效应。
In recent years, the export of fur and its products in our country has been growing rapidly. However, from a historical and objective point of view, the export of fur products in our country fluctuates greatly. Based on the analysis of the scale and market structure of China’s fur products export from 2000 to 2014, In the meantime, the export of China’s fur products is divided into four periods. At the same time, the author uses the CMS model to analyze and quantify the export trade effects of China’s fur products, and analyzes the reasons and internal mechanisms of the export of fur products in China. The results show that both in the export growth period and the recession period, the comprehensive competitiveness effect and the growth effect are both the main factors that affect the export of China’s fur products, of which the comprehensive competitiveness effect is slightly stronger than the growth effect.