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目的评价传染病自动预警信息系统对海口市传染病暴发事件的预警效果,为提高预警效率提供依据。方法以灵敏度、阳性预测值和领先时间为评价指标,应用描述性方法对2008～2010年海口市传染病暴发事件的预警效果进行分析。结果 2008～2010年海口市共发生传染病暴发事件27起,预警系统发出预警信息1796次,预警暴发事件9起,灵敏度为33.33%,阳性预测值为0.50%,8起事件领先时间出现负值。结论系统对传染病暴发事件预警准确性和及时性不高,应根据工作开展情况、不同病种调整预警阈值,设置预警病种。
Objective To evaluate the early warning effect of automatic warning information system of infectious diseases on the outbreak of infectious diseases in Haikou and provide the basis for improving the efficiency of early warning. Methods Using the sensitivity, positive predictive value and lead time as the evaluation indexes, the descriptive method was used to analyze the early warning effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases in Haikou from 2008 to 2010. Results A total of 27 outbreaks of infectious diseases were reported in Haikou City from 2008 to 2010. The early warning system issued 1796 warnings and 9 early warning outbreaks with a sensitivity of 33.33% and a positive predictive value of 0.50%. Eight events lead negatively . Conclusion The early warning accuracy and timeliness of the outbreak of infectious diseases are not high. The early warning thresholds should be adjusted according to the work conditions and different diseases, and the early warning diseases should be set.