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大豆食心虫的危害程度(虫食率)受食心虫虫卵的越冬基数、气象条件等定量因素的影响,并受品种、防治情况等定性因素的影响。考虑影响危害程度的11个因素,如上年平均脱荚率、大豆品种、防治情况、越冬幼虫成活率等。利用数量化预测方法所具有的对数据精确性要求不高,同时能考虑定量因子和定性因子的特点,以当年的虫食率为基准变量建立数量化预测模型,对大豆食心虫不同危害程度发生的概率进行预测。在对73个样本三级模型的回报中,完全正确的有63个,回报率为86.30%,预报等级误差为1级的有8个,占总样本数的10.96%,回报精度较好,所建立的模型具有实际意义。
The damage degree (insecticidal rate) of soybean borer was influenced by the quantitative factors such as the overwintering base of meteoroid wormworm eggs and meteorological conditions, and was affected by the qualitative factors such as variety, control and so on. Consider 11 factors that affect the degree of harm, such as average plowing rate, soybean varieties, prevention and control conditions, survival rate of overwintering larvae, etc. in the previous year. Using quantitative forecasting method has less demanding on data accuracy and considering the characteristics of quantitative factor and qualitative factor, a quantitative forecasting model was established based on the current year’s worm food rate, Probability of prediction. In the 73 samples of the three models of the return, the correct 63, the rate of 86.30%, the forecast level error of 8, accounting for 10.96% of the total number of samples, the return of good accuracy The established model has practical significance.