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应用塔克拉玛干沙漠干线公路建成通车以来的交通事故统计数据,在分析交通事故主要指标发展变化特征和分布特征的基础上,建立了适用于沙漠公路交通事故特点的GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来几年内交通事故发展趋势进行了预测。预测结果表明,未来几年沙漠公路交通事故次数、死亡人数、受伤人数以及直接经济损失等4项指数将分别以15.9%,10%,4.5%和5%的年平均增长率快速增长。同时针对预测结果提出了相应的对策。
Based on the statistical analysis of traffic accidents since the construction of the trunk highway in the Taklimakan Desert, the GM (1,1) forecasting model applied to the characteristics of traffic accidents in desert highway was established based on the analysis of the characteristics and distribution of the main indicators of traffic accidents. The development trend of traffic accidents in the next few years has been predicted. The forecast results show that the four indices of desert highway traffic accidents, death toll, injuries and direct economic losses in the coming years will grow rapidly at the average annual growth rates of 15.9%, 10%, 4.5% and 5% respectively. At the same time, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward according to the prediction results.