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目的探讨哈尔滨市寒日天气对人群心脑血管发病的影响,为心脑血管疾病的预防提供理论依据和措施。方法收集2015年冬季哈尔滨市心脑血管日发病数据和同期的大气污染及气象监测资料,采用病例交叉研究,应用条件logistics回归模型分析寒日对心脑血管发病的影响。结果 2015年冬季哈尔滨共发生19个寒日,分析发现发病前1 d、前4 d、前6 d的寒日天气暴露情况对心脑血管疾病发病的影响有统计学意义(P<0.05),其中前1 d的OR值最大为1.173(1.086~1.268)。在控制了延迟效应、星期几效应及气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,发现寒日≤-23.8℃、平均气压、二氧化硫对心脑血管发病的影响有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论前1 d的OR值最大,提示寒日对心脑发病影响存在延迟效应;寒日(≤-23.8℃)的OR值为1.413(1.308~1.526),提示寒日天气是心脑血管发病的危险因素,应注意寒日天气的防寒保暖,特别是高危人群更应加强防护意识。
Objective To investigate the effect of winter weather in Harbin on the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and to provide theoretical basis and measures for the prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Methods Data of daily cardiovascular and cerebrovascular incidence in Harbin in winter of 2015 and the data of atmospheric pollution and meteorological monitoring during the same period were collected. Case cross study was used to analyze the effect of cold day on the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Results A total of 19 cold days occurred in Harbin in the winter of 2015. The results showed that the exposure to cold weather on the first day, the first 4 days and the first 6 days before onset had a significant effect on the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (P <0.05) The odds ratio (OR) of the previous 1 d was 1.173 (1.086-1.268). On the basis of controlling the confounding factors such as delay effect, day-of-week effect and meteorological factors, it was found that the average daily air temperature and sulfur dioxide have a significant effect on the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (P <0.05). Conclusions The odds ratio (OR) of the first day is the highest, which indicates that there is a delay effect of cold day on the incidence of cardiocerebral disease. The OR of cold day (≤-23.8 ℃) is 1.413 (1.308 ~ 1.526) Risk factors, cold and warm weather should pay attention to warm and cold, especially in high-risk groups should also strengthen the protection awareness.