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近十几年来,我国货币供应量持续快速增长,与之对应的是以温和的CPI通胀和显著上涨的房价为特征的“价格结构性上涨”。本文结合我国货币政策实践,通过一个修正的DSGE模型模拟分析货币供应量增长对价格结构性上涨的影响机制。研究结果显示:货币供给量增长率提高0.5%,将促使实际租房价格增加约0.23%,实际房价上涨约0.40%,而消费品实际价格则下降约0.15%,这表明我国增加货币的冲击确实将产生价格结构性上涨现象。因此,央行继续单纯把CPI作为货币政策调整的“锚”已经不再合适,有必要考虑重新选择一个包含资产价格的更广泛的“政策锚”。
Over the past decade or so, the money supply in our country has continued to grow rapidly, corresponding to the “structural price increase” characterized by moderate CPI inflation and markedly higher housing prices. Based on the practice of China’s monetary policy, this paper uses a modified DSGE model to simulate and analyze the impact of money supply growth on price structure. The results show that a 0.5% increase in the money supply will result in an increase of about 0.23% in real rental prices, an increase of about 0.40% in real house prices and a decrease of about 0.15% in real prices of consumer goods, suggesting that the impact of China’s increasing monetary value will indeed occur Structural changes in the price phenomenon. Therefore, it is no longer appropriate for the central bank to continue to simply adjust the CPI as a monetary policy. It is therefore necessary to consider reselecting a broader “policy anchor” that includes asset prices.