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平均预期寿命是衡量一个国家或地区社会经济发展水平及医疗卫生服务水平的综合指标,同时也是人类发展指数等国际对比指标的基础。文章选取人均地区生产总值(X_1)、城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年底余额(X_2)、人均公园绿地面积(X_3)、人口出生率(X_4)、性别(D)5个指标,以分别探究经济发展水平、居民财富、居住环境、人口变动趋势等社会经济因素和人类生物学因素对预期寿命的影响。利用2000年和2010年人口预期寿命的省级面板数据,建立多元线性回归模型,对人口平均预期寿命的影响因素进行定量分析。结果显示,经济发展水平、居民财富、居住环境三个因素对地区人口预期寿命有显著的正向作用,而人口出生率对地区人口预期寿命有显著的负向作用。之后,引入性别作为虚拟变量,发现女性人口预期寿命显著高于男性人口预期寿命。
The average life expectancy is a comprehensive measure of socio-economic development and health services in a country or region. It is also the basis of international comparative indicators such as the human development index. This paper selects five indicators of GDP per capita (X_1), the balance of RMB deposits of urban and rural residents at the end of the year (X_2), the per capita parkland area (X_3), the population birth rate (X_4) and sex (D) , Household wealth, living environment, population change trends and other socio-economic factors and human biological factors on life expectancy. Based on the provincial panel data of population life expectancy in 2000 and 2010, a multivariate linear regression model was established to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors on the average life expectancy of the population. The results show that the economic development level, residents’ wealth and living environment have a significant positive effect on the life expectancy of the population in the region, while the birth rate has a significant negative effect on the life expectancy of the region’s population. Later, introducing gender as a dummy variable found that female population life expectancy was significantly higher than male population life expectancy.