Sensitivity of the DRP-4DVar Performance to Perturbation Samples Obtained by Two Different Methods

来源 :气象学报 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:yf_kyo
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) approach utilizes the ensemble of historical forecasts to estimate the background error covariance (BEC) and directly obtains the analysis in the ensemble space. As a result, the quality of ensemble members significantly affects the DRP-4DVar performance. The historical-forecast-based initial perturbation samples are flow-dependent and can describe the error-growth pattern of the atmospheric model and the balanced relationship between different model variables. However, the ensemble spread is not big enough because of the short time interval between adjacent historical samples and the limited ensemble size. In this study, the BEC of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) system is employed to produce initial perturbation samples for the DRP-4DVar. The control variable perturbation method based on the structure characteristics of the 3DVar BEC produces initial perturbation samples that have reasonable background error correlations. Moreover, the estimated BEC also has good dynamic and physical consistency between variables after the initial perturbation samples undergo a development with a 6- or 12-h model forward integration. In terms of computational expense, the historical forecast results can be obtained without any additional computational cost at the operational numerical weather forecast centers, while the integration of samples from the 3DVar-based control variable perturbation method is time-consuming, but this difficulty can be alleviated through parallel computing. Although the assimilation run with the historical-forecast-based ensemble generates slightly better initial analysis field, the forecasts from the assimilation experiment using the 3DVar method performs better during the period from 12 to 30 h. Moreover, precipitation is simulated significantly better when the new ensemble is used. In conclusion, the performance of the DRP-4DVar approach can be improved especially in predicting heavy rains when the initial perturbation samples are derived from the BEC of the WRF 3DVar system.
其他文献
科技期刊编辑决策的原则有循证原则、程序原则、同行评议原则、公正原则、层次原则;编辑决策的类型有编辑战略决策、战术决策、策略决策、风险决策、常规决策;编辑决策程序有
我国工业污染物的检测指标主要分为大气污染、固体废弃物污染和水污染三大类.要对工业污染物进行综合控制,必须了解工业大气、固体废弃物、水污染等不同污染物之间的相关程度
本研究通过东喜马拉雅构造结及周围地区连续6年的大地电磁观测,获得了青藏高原东部岩石圈电性结构的初步认识。结果发现,在青藏高原东部存在两条巨大的中下地壳低阻异常带,理
辽宁瓦房店地区是我国重要的金刚石成矿远景区,区内已有三个矿带和百余个岩体,在勘查过程中,同时又发现四个隐伏金伯利岩体,这些深埋在基岩以下的岩体规模可观,金刚石质量上
本文针对一二维对称扩压器进行POD分析.采用非定常技术计算定常,对Re=114的情况下进行数值模拟并进行POD分析,研究表明此方法能够捕捉流场特征,和直接解符合很好,但节省了CPU
探索性空间数据分析(ExploratorySpatial Data Analysis,ESDA)技术在探索区域经济发展的空间结构中发挥着重要作用。利用ESDA技术,对1997年和2004年上海郊区经济发展情况进行了分析。分析结果表明,郊区存在显著的发展热点区,主要位于西部郊区的嘉定、闵行、青浦、松江等区域,并呈现北缩南扩趋势。郊区经济发展表现出中心城蔓延式及交通走廊式分布特点。
在进行城市电力规划时,必须充分了解其特点和内容,以科学发展观为指导,结合城市总体发展规划、国民经济和社会发展、土地资源和环保规划等,文章阐述城市电力规划的基本要求、
在中国快速城镇化和工业化过程中,中国农民做出了巨大的贡献,也付出了许多。然而现实问题是中国的城乡差别确越来越大,显然是一些政策出现了问题。政策的颁布具有明显的"城市倾向"特征,这其中特别体现在对农村失地农民的补偿方式上。公共政策无非需要在公平与效率之间达成平衡,公平为首或效率为主取决于决策者的价值观。通过分析"城市倾向"在实践中的体现,评估我国现有的失地农民的补偿政策,提出了对城镇化进程中一些政策
陇川县是一个典型的景颇、阿昌、德昂、傣、傈僳等多个少数民族聚居的边疆农业县,少数民族占全县农业人口的60%,其社会发育进程上属于从原始公社末期直接过渡到社会主义的"直
2004年7月开始实施的上海郊区宅基地置换试点,是促进郊区城市化发展的具有试验性的公共政策.按照试点选择及运作特点,将宅基地置换试点归纳为四类模式并选择其中的典型案例进