论文部分内容阅读
中国货运量与GDP及运输结构的关系对于中国物流的可持续发展极为重要.选取1955-2011年中国货运量、GDP及公路货运量所占货运量比重的时间序列数据,运用VAR,模型研究中国货运量与GDP及运输结构的动态关系.结果表明:从长期来看,货运量、GDP及运输结构三者存在长期均衡关系;Granger因果关系表明:货运量和运输结构是影响GDP的原因;脉冲函数表明:运输结构对货运量的影响是负向的,而GDP对货运量的影响是正向的.
The relationship between freight volume in China and GDP and transport structure is very important for the sustainable development of China’s logistics.Selecting the time series data of freight traffic volume in China from 1955 to 2011, GDP and highway freight traffic volume, using VAR, model to study China The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between freight volume, GDP and transportation structure in the long run. The Granger causality shows that the freight volume and transportation structure are the causes of GDP, and the pulse The function shows that the influence of transport structure on freight volume is negative, while the impact of GDP on freight volume is positive.