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应用LINKAGES模型对长白山自然保护区内主要树种在各斑块类型中对气候变化的潜在响应进行了模拟 .模拟时选择了目前和未来变暖 2种气候条件 ,对于目前气候状态 ,模型使用目前气象参数 ;而对于未来变暖气候 ,则按温度增加 5℃、降水无明显变化作为模拟假设 ,温度的增加假定各月都相同 ,即各月均增加 5℃ .模拟结果表明 ,对于高山岳桦林 ,气温变暧后岳桦依然扮演重要角色 ,但落叶松、云杉、冷杉等目前这一林带的伴生树种 ,在气温上升后 ,其生物量均有较大辐度的增加 ,部分占据目前岳桦的位置 ,即目前下部的云冷杉林带有上移的趋势 ;对于亚高山云冷杉林 ,其优势种云杉和冷杉在气温变暖后 ,生物量有较大辐度的增加 ,落叶松虽有增加的趋势但辐度较小 ,即云杉和冷杉在未来气温变暖后依然是这一林带的优势种 ,但生长会加快 ;阔叶红松林的主要建群种在气温升高后 ,其生物量只有较小的增加 ,其它主要伴生种的生物量随气温上升的增加趋势非常相似 ,表明阔叶红松林在未来气候变暖情况下仍将维持目前的结构状态 .
LINKAGES model was used to simulate the potential response to climate change among the major tree species in Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve in each plaque type. Two climate conditions, current and future warming, were selected for the simulation. For the current climate status, the model uses current weather For the future warming climate, the temperature increases by 5 ℃ without any significant change in precipitation as a simulation assumption, and the increase in temperature is assumed to be the same for all the months, ie 5 ℃ for each month. The simulation results show that, Yuehua still plays an important role after the temperature is warmer. However, at present, associated trees such as larch, spruce and fir have increased their biomass after the temperature rises, and some of them occupy the current Yue The location of birch, that is, the current downward trend of the spruce fir with the upward trend; for subalpine spruce fir forest, the dominant species of spruce and fir in the temperature warming, the biomass has a greater degree of increase in larch There is an increasing tendency but less amplitude, that is, the spruce and fir will continue to be the dominant species in the forest belt after the warming in the future, but the growth will accelerate; the main building species of the broad-leaved Korean pine forest The biomass of the broadleaved Korean pine forest will maintain its current state of structure under the condition of future climate warming, with only a small increase in biomass after the temperature rises. The biomass of other major associated species tends to increase with increasing temperature. .