论文部分内容阅读
全球气候变暖对陆地生态系统尤其是森林生态系统有着重要的影响,气温升高、辐射强迫的增强将显著改变森林生态系统的结构和功能.南方人工林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化的响应日益强烈.为了探究未来气候情景下我国南方人工林对气候变化的响应,降低未来气候变化对人工林可能带来的损失,本研究采用3种最新的气候情景—典型浓度排放路径情景(RCP2.6情景、RCP4.5情景、RCP8.5情景)预估数据,应用生态系统过程模型Pn ET-Ⅱ和空间直观景观模型LANDIS-Ⅱ模拟2014—2094年间湖南省会同森林生态实验站磨哨实验林场森林的地表净初级生产力(ANPP)、物种建立可能性(SEP)和地上生物量的变化.结果表明:不同森林类型的SEP和ANPP对气候变化的响应有明显的差异,各森林类型对气候变化的响应程度表现为:对于SEP,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,人工针叶林>天然阔叶林>人工阔叶林;在RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林>人工阔叶林>人工针叶林.对于ANPP,在RCP2.6情景下,人工阔叶林>天然阔叶林>人工针叶林;在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,天然阔叶林>人工阔叶林>人工针叶林.人工针叶林的地上生物量在2050年左右开始下降,天然阔叶林和人工阔叶林整体呈现上升趋势.2014—2094年,研究区地上总生物量在不同气候情景下增加幅度不同,RCP2.6情景下增加了68.2%,RCP4.5情景下增加了79.3%,RCP8.5情景下增加了72.6%.3种情景下的总地上生物量大小排序为:RCP4.5>RCP8.5>RCP2.6.我们认为,适当的增温将有助于未来研究区森林总地上生物量的积累,但过度的增温也可能会阻碍森林的生产和生态功能的持续发展.
Global warming has an important impact on terrestrial ecosystems, especially forest ecosystems. The increase of temperature and the increase of radiative forcing will significantly change the structure and function of forest ecosystems. As an important part of forest in our country, In order to explore the response of the plantation to the climate change in the future climate and to reduce the potential loss caused by the future climate change in the plantation, three new climate scenarios, the typical concentration emission scenario (RCP2.6 scenario, RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario), the Pn ET-Ⅱ and the LANDIS-Ⅱ spatial landscape model were used to simulate the ecological environment of Huludao Forest Experiment Station during 2014-2094 The results showed that the responses of SEP and ANPP of different forest types to climate change were significantly different. The forest types of forest types (ie, the net primary productivity (ANPP), species establishment possibility (SEP) The response to climate change is as follows: For SEP, artificial coniferous forest> natural broadleaf forest> RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 Broadleaf forest, natural broad-leaved forest> artificial broad-leaved forest> artificial coniferous forest under the RCP8.5 scenario.For ANPP, under the RCP2.6 scenario, artificial broad-leaved forest> natural broad-leaved forest> artificial coniferous forest In RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, natural broad-leaved forests> artificial broad-leaved forests> artificial coniferous forests.The aboveground biomass of artificial coniferous forests began to decline around 2050. Natural broad-leaved forests and artificial broad-leaved forests The total forest biomass increased in different climate scenarios from 2014 to 2094, with an increase of 68.2% in RCP2.6 and 79.3% in RCP4.5, and a decrease of RCP8.5 in 2014-2094 And 72.6% respectively.The order of total aboveground biomass in the three scenarios is: RCP4.5> RCP8.5> RCP2.6. In our opinion, appropriate warming will contribute to the total aboveground biomass However, excessive warming may also hinder the sustainable development of forest production and ecological functions.