2009年房地产市场神奇的完成了V形反弹,今年年初政府出台了一系列的组合拳,遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的势头。本文主要从以下几个方面对政策、市场进行了具体分析:市场资金面充足、市场供需情况不平衡、地产行业对GDP的贡献巨大、利率无法发挥功效、对于通胀的预期以及日本经济泡沫的破灭经验。本文认为,2010年房价将从快速上涨变为温和爬升,应该是一个平稳基础上的“小增年”。 The real estate market in 2009 magically completed a V-shaped rebound earlier this year the government introduced a series of combination punches to curb the trend of excessive housing prices in some cities. This article mainly analyzes policy and market from the following aspects: market capital adequacy, unbalanced supply and demand in the market, huge contribution of real estate industry to GDP, interest rate ineffective, anticipation of inflation and burst of Japan’s economic bubble experience. This article argues that housing prices will change from a rapid rise in 2010 to a moderate rise, should be based on a stable “small increase year.”