2月,全球经济增长继续前行,但政治因素对于金融市场的影响加剧。中东北非局势虽未形成普遍的避险情绪,但市场已在选择性地规避风险,这种情况下最为受益的是欧元资产而非美元资产。欧洲央行可能会较美联储提前加息的预期加剧了这一趋势,导致欧元/美元汇率升值,商品价格得到美元贬值、地缘政治、通胀上升的三重支撑而发力上扬。 In February, global economic growth continued, but the political impact on financial markets intensified. Although the situation in the Middle East and North Africa did not form a common risk aversion, the market has selectively avoided the risks. In this case, the most beneficiary is the euro assets rather than the dollar assets. This trend is exacerbated by the expectation that the ECB may raise interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve, resulting in an appreciation of the euro / dollar exchange rate and rising commodity prices supported by the devaluation of the dollar, geopolitics and rising inflation.