论文部分内容阅读
针对人及组织因素是造成航天工程项目风险的重要原因,在揭示了人及组织因素产生航天工程项目风险的机理基础上,构建了考虑人及组织因素的航天工程项目风险分析模型。模型首先评价人及组织因素对航天工程元器件建造工作质量的影响,接着测度工作质量与不同缺陷类型之间的一致性概率,并应用Poisson分布计算缺陷严重性,最后根据贝叶斯定理对元器件先验失效率进行修正,通过一个经过数据处理的航天工程项目对所构建的模型和方法进行了验证。
The human and organizational factors are the important reasons that cause the risk of aerospace project. Based on the revealing of the mechanism of aerospace project risk arising from human and organizational factors, a risk analysis model of aerospace engineering project considering human and organizational factors is constructed. Firstly, the model evaluates the influence of human and organizational factors on the construction quality of aerospace engineering components, and then measures the consistency between work quality and different defect types. The Poisson distribution is used to calculate the defect severity. Finally, according to the Bayesian theorem, The a priori failure rate of the device was corrected, and the models and methods built were verified through a data-processing aerospace project.