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以突变理论为基础,给出了突发事件影响度的仿真评价方法.通过采用三角分布描述专家对子指标影响程度的估计,建立了突发事件影响度的仿真模型.通过对仿真模型进行独立重复仿真实验,获得突发事件影响度的评价值并进行统计分析.为克服评价结果偏高而区分度不高的缺陷,研究了评价值的转换方法,转换后的评价值能更好地体现人们对突发事件的认知程度.该方法可将定量、定性指标纳入同一模型中,并可避免人为确定权重的主观性.算例表明,在基于突变理论的评价模型中结合系统仿真的思想,是研究突发事件影响度的有效方法.该方法具有良好的可靠性,也可适用于其它综合评价问题.
Based on the theory of catastrophe, a simulation evaluation method for the influence degree of emergent events is given.The simulation model of impact degree of emergencies is established by describing the degree of influence of experts on the sub-index by using the triangular distribution.Through the independent Repeat the simulation experiment to obtain the evaluation value of the impact of emergency and make statistical analysis.To overcome the shortcomings of high evaluation results and low discrimination, the conversion method of evaluation value is studied, and the converted evaluation value can better reflect People’s cognition of emergencies.This method can incorporate quantitative and qualitative indexes into the same model and avoid the subjectivity of weight determination.The example shows that in the evaluation model based on catastrophe theory combined with the idea of system simulation , Which is an effective method to study the impact of emergencies.This method has good reliability and can also be applied to other comprehensive evaluation problems.