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利用军山湖区河蟹生态养殖产量资料,分析了1992～2002年来湖区河蟹生产效益的年际波动,同时结合生态放养期间的气象条件,讨论了河蟹生态养殖效益对气候变化的响应:一是河蟹品质对大湖放养当年7～8月≥35℃高温变化的响应;二是河蟹成熟期对自然生长期积温变化的响应;三是河蟹收获总量对关键期降水变化的响应。本文还设计了效益年景与气候年景的评定模式,通过两种评定结果的比较,讨论了以气候年景定性预测效益年景的可行性,为进一步作好河蟹生态养殖产区的预报与情报服务提供依据。
Based on the ecological culture data of crab and crab in Jun Shan Lake, the paper analyzes the interannual fluctuation of crab production efficiency in the lake from 1992 to 2002, and at the same time discusses the response of crab eco-farming benefits to climate change based on the meteorological conditions during ecological stocking: The response to the high temperature change of ≥35 ℃ from July to August of the Great Lakes stocking; Second, the response of the maturity of crab to the change of accumulated temperature during the natural growth; Third, the response of the total harvest of the crabs to the precipitation during the critical period. This paper also designs the assessment model of years of benefit and climate, and compares the two assessment results to discuss the feasibility of predicting the years of benefit by qualitatively analyzing the year of climate. In order to further forecast and forecast the eco-culture area of Crab, Information services provide the basis.