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本文综合三十多年来中国农业机械化的发展,农村经济体制改革和农村经济发展对农业机械化的全面要求,应用科学的预测方法研讨了2000年中国农机化发展的远景。文章指出,2000年中国农业机械化发展将是部门和地区有先后,机械化对象和作业项目有重点,发展速度合理的以经济效益为中心的选择性机械化。农业机械化将进一步突破种植业主要是田间作业的狭窄范围,转向农林牧副渔多部门的产前、产中和产后多环节。农村工副业,尤其是农副产品加工、运输机械化将得到优先发展。主要粮食和经济作物的耕整地、排灌、植保、脱粒等基本实现机械化,其它作业也将迅速发展。禽畜业中的鸡、牛、猪、羊的饲养业和饲料加工业中的配合饲料、颗粒饲料的机械化将重点发展。林业机械将重点发展营林、育林和加工机械。渔业机械将重点发展养殖机械、保鲜、贮运和加工机械。文章提到,2000年农机总动力将达到4.8亿马力,其中,农用拖拉机约13500万马力;农用汽车为5000～7000万马力;排灌动力约11450万马力,农村工副业动力约14000万马力。文章还分析了农业机械化发展的宏观经济效果并提出了发展的七项战略措施。
Based on the comprehensive requirements of agricultural mechanization in the development of China’s agricultural mechanization, rural economic system reform and rural economic development in more than 30 years, this paper discusses the prospect of agricultural mechanization in China by using scientific prediction methods. The article points out that the development of China’s agricultural mechanization in 2000 will be the selective mechanization centered on economic benefits with the priority of mechanized objects and operations and the reasonable speed of development in areas and regions. Agricultural mechanization will further break through the narrow range of planting mainly for field operations and shift to the prenatal, mid-delivery and post-natal links in many sectors of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Rural sideline, especially agricultural and sideline products processing, transport mechanization will be given priority to development. The main grain and cash crops for land preparation, irrigation and drainage, plant protection, threshing and other basic mechanization, other operations will also be rapid development. Poultry industry in the chickens, cattle, pigs, sheep and feed industry feed processing industry in the feed, pellet feed mechanization will focus on development. Forestry machinery will focus on the development of forest management, forestation and processing machinery. Fishery machinery will focus on the development of aquaculture machinery, preservation, storage and processing machinery. The article mentions that the total power of agricultural machinery will reach 480 million horsepower in 2000, of which about 135 million horsepower will be used for agricultural tractors, 5,000-700 million horsepower for agricultural vehicles, 114.5 million horsepower for irrigation and drainage and about 140 million horsepower for rural workforce. The article also analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the development of agricultural mechanization and puts forward seven strategic measures for its development.