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为了对双车道公路进行定量的安全性评价,本文研究了双车道公路的事故预测模型。首先,在调研和采集双车道公路的事故、线形、交通等数据的基础上,应用统计分析方法建立了直接表征我国双车道公路的事故与影响要素间关系的基础模型;然后,应用统计分析方法进行了接入口等事故修正因子(AMF)的研究;利用基础模型经过AMF修正、经验贝叶斯过程(EB过程)、标定等进行双车道公路安全性预测。最后介绍了双车道公路事故预测模型的应用示例。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of two-lane highway, this paper studies the accident prediction model of two-lane highway. Firstly, on the basis of investigating and collecting the data of accident, line shape and traffic of two-lane highway, the paper establishes a basic model which directly characterizes the relationship between accident and influence elements of two-lane highway in our country by means of statistical analysis. Secondly, The study of accident correction factor (AMF) such as access port was carried out. The safety prediction of two-lane highway was carried out by using AMF, Bayesian Process (EB) process and calibration. Finally, the application example of two-lane road accident prediction model is introduced.