论文部分内容阅读
獭兔皮是我国主要的裘皮原料皮之一。獭兔皮的市场需求变动频率较高,幅度较大,其价格随之波动,严重影响养兔业。人们也在不断探索着预测獭兔皮价格依据,以便能随时扩群或缩群,规避风险和提高养兔业效益。通过对2004-2013年獭兔皮价格与国内主要毛皮价格、饲料价格及CPI和GDP增长率的动态变化统计分析,研究獭兔皮价格与国内主要毛皮价格、兔颗粒料和饲料原料价格及CPI、GDP增长率的相关性,以此判断獭兔皮价格与毛皮价格、饲料价格及CPI和GDP增长率之间的线性关系。统计分析结果显示,獭兔皮价格与国内毛皮价格、饲料价格、GDP、CPI增长率均具有相关性。其中与蓝狐皮的价格相关度最高(r=0.638),其次是蓝狐皮(r=0.510)、貉子皮(r=0.344)、水貂皮(r=0.097)。獭兔皮价格与饲料价格的相关性玉米(r=0.385)>兔颗粒料(r=0.233)>豆粕(r=0.156)>大豆(r=0.119)。獭兔皮价格与GDP增长率呈负相关(r=-0.208)、与CPI增长率呈正相关(r=0.349)。
Rex rabbit skin is one of the major fur raw materials in China. Rex rabbit skin changes in the market demand is higher, a larger range, the price fluctuations, seriously affecting the raising industry. People are also constantly exploring the basis for predicting the price of rex rabbit skin, so that they can expand or shrink clusters at any time to avoid risks and raise the efficiency of raising rabbits. Through the statistical analysis of the dynamic changes of rex rabbit skin prices and domestic major fur prices, feed prices and CPI and GDP growth from 2004 to 2013, the paper studied the price of rex rabbit skin and the price of domestic main fur, the price of pellets and feed raw materials, CPI, GDP Growth rate of correlation, in order to determine the rex rabbit skin price and fur prices, feed prices and CPI and GDP growth rate between the linear relationship. Statistical analysis shows that the price of Rex rabbit skin is closely related to domestic fur price, feed price, GDP, and CPI growth rate. Among them, the price of blue fox skin was the highest (r = 0.638), followed by blue fox skin (r = 0.510), vellus skin (r = 0.344) and mink skin (r = 0.097). Rex rabbit skin price and feed price correlation Corn (r = 0.385)> rabbit pellet (r = 0.233)> soybean meal (r = 0.156)> soybean (r = 0.119). The price of Rex rabbit skin was negatively correlated with the GDP growth rate (r = -0.208), which was positively correlated with the CPI growth rate (r = 0.349).