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本文以辽宁省新民市为例研究了作物产量保险定价问题,在只获得有关作物单产部分信息的情况下,通过最大熵原理建立作物单产的最大熵分布,厘定最大熵费率。同时拟合作物单产的几种参数分布和非参数核密度,与最大熵费率进行了比较研究。研究发现,在信息不足的情况下,最大熵分布对单产未做任何假定,相对来讲又考虑了更多关于分布的信息,为开展农业保险的费率精算提供了新方法。
In this paper, the author takes Xinmin City in Liaoning Province as an example to study the pricing of crop yield insurance. Under the condition of obtaining only some information about crop yield, the maximum entropy distribution of crop yield is established by maximum entropy principle and the maximum entropy rate is determined. At the same time, several parameter distributions and non-parametric kernel density of crop yield were fitted, and the maximum entropy rates were compared. The study found that in the case of lack of information, the maximum entropy distribution does not make any assumptions on the yield, relatively speaking, more information about the distribution is considered, providing a new method for carrying out the rate-fixing of agricultural insurance.