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在开放经济条件下,来自外部的冲击会通过国际贸易和金融市场传导机制对一国的宏观经济稳定产生影响。分析表明,美国经济冲击对我国实体经济波动的影响比较显著,且主要是通过金融市场传导机制发挥作用;贸易依存度的提高总体上有助于经济稳定,而实际关税率的下降则不利于经济稳定;金融自由化进程总体上不利于经济稳定,而产业结构升级、以银行业为主导的金融体系结构、亚洲金融危机期间盯住美元的汇率政策调整、人民币有效汇率的贬值以及相对稳健的财政和金融状况,都在一定程度上有助于消减外部冲击的不利影响。
Under the condition of an open economy, the external shocks will affect the macroeconomic stability of a country through the conduction mechanism of international trade and financial markets. The analysis shows that the impact of the U.S. economic impact on China’s real economy is more pronounced and mainly exerted its influence through the financial market transmission mechanism. The improvement of trade dependence generally helps to stabilize the economy, while the reduction of the actual tariff rate is detrimental to the economy Stabilization; the process of financial liberalization is generally not conducive to economic stability, while the upgrading of industrial structure, the banking-led financial system structure, the exchange rate policy pegged to the dollar during the Asian financial crisis, the devaluation of the RMB effective exchange rate and the relative sound financial And financial conditions all contribute to reducing the adverse effects of external shocks to a certain extent.