论文部分内容阅读
为了综合评价技术创新、生产规模、生产经验、市场需求这4种因素对光伏成本及组件价格的影响,该文在可再生能源学习曲线的基础上引入市场研究变量和各种表征变量之间的时间滞后关系,以日本、美国和中国为案例利用逐步回归法筛选出关键的影响因素。根据日本、美国和中国的历史经验,光伏成本下降驱动因素按作用从大到小排序为技术创新、生产规模扩大和生产经验增加,因此应引导中国技术创新规模扩大,并促进将研发创新、技术引进、规模化生产转化为成本下降。同时识别出需求移动引起了价格波动,因此应避免引起供不应求的需求急剧扩大。
In order to comprehensively evaluate the impact of technological innovation, production scale, production experience and market demand on the cost of PV and the price of components, this paper introduces the market research variables and various characterization variables based on renewable energy learning curve Time lag relationship, using Japan, the United States and China as the case to use the stepwise regression method to select the key influencing factors. According to the historical experience of Japan, the United States and China, the driving forces of the decline in PV costs are sorted by their functions as technological innovation, expanded production scale and increased production experience. Therefore, the scale of technological innovation in China should be expanded and the R & D innovation, technology The introduction of large-scale production into cost reduction. At the same time, it was identified that demand movements caused price volatility, and therefore the need to avoid a sharp rise in demand was identified.