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系统思考习惯一个口袋里有5个质地相同的球,三只红的,两只白的,每次随机摸出一个让你猜颜色,按什么策略去猜才能猜中的最多呢?多数人都会依据前一两次的结果来猜,心想,该红的了,该白的了……但是,也有人是这样想:既然红的出现概率是60%,我只要每次都猜红的,那一定可以趋近60%以上的成功率,因此应当是:红,红,红,……一直地猜下去。显然第二种人的想法是对的。第二种人想的更周全,更本质,我们称第二种人的思考是系统思考。
System thinking habit A pocket with five balls of the same texture, three red, two white, each random guess a color you guess, according to what strategy to guess the most up? Most people will According to the results of the previous two to guess, I thought, the red, the white ... ... However, some people think so: Since the probability of red is 60%, I just guess the red every time, That will surely approach a success rate of over 60%, so it should be: red, red, red, ... always guessing. Obviously the second person’s thinking is right. The second type of person is more thoughtful and essential, and we call the second type of person’s thinking a systematic consideration.