目前,各国把发展高技术作为迎接21世纪的重要战略任务。然而由于高技术本身的高风险性,使高技术的投资成功率只有20～30%。其夭折的主要原因除技术关键难以突破外,另一个原因是投资前对高技术需求估计过高,对短期局部效益期望过高,对其不确定因素估计不足所致。这说明,发展高技 At present, all countries regard the development of high technology as an important strategic task in the 21st century. However, due to the high risk of high technology itself, the success rate of high-tech investment is only 20 to 30%. The main reason for its premature death is hard to break apart from the key to the technology. Another reason is that the high-tech demand before investment is overestimated, and the expectation of local profits in short-term is too high, which is caused by the lack of estimation of its uncertainties. This shows that the development of high technology