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基于太湖流域98个代表雨量站1981~2010年逐日降水资料,利用百分位阈值法定义各测站极端降水阈值,分析了不同极端降水事件的频次及其平均强度的空间分布特征,并对极端降水进行趋势分析。结果表明,浙西区极端降水事件频次出现较高,湖西区的中部和东南部降水强度较大;从季节分布来看,汛期5~10月出现极端雨日频次高,且强度相对较大;全太湖流域各区年平均极端雨日普遍呈微弱下降趋势,武澄锡虞区、阳澄淀泖区、浦东浦西区极端降水平均强度呈上升趋势,其他区变化趋势不显著。
Based on daily precipitation data of 98 representative rainfall stations in the Taihu Lake Basin from 1981 to 2010, the extreme precipitation threshold of each station was defined by the percentile thresholding method. The spatial distribution characteristics of different extreme precipitation events and their average intensities were analyzed. Precipitation for trend analysis. The results show that there is a high frequency of extreme precipitation events in western Zhejiang and a large precipitation intensity in the central and southeastern part of the lake. According to the seasonal distribution, the extreme rain days are high and the intensity is relatively high in flood season from May to October The annual average extreme rainy days in all areas of Taihu Lake Basin generally showed a weak downward trend. The average intensity of extreme precipitation in the areas of Wuyu Xiyu, Yangcheng Sedum, Pudong and Puxi increased while that in other areas did not change significantly.