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在2016年的政府工作报告中,社会融资规模增长的具体目标首次被明确提出。作为货币政策领域新的宏观调控指标,社会融资规模的重要作用正在凸显。本文使用社会融资规模的月度数据,以扣除房地产及金融业产值的国内生产总值衡量实体经济增长,主要运用分位数回归的方法,深度剖析社会融资规模的变化对实体经济整体分布变化的影响。实证分析发现,社会融资规模对实体经济的影响呈倒U形分布,这与加入社会融资规模平方项的OLS回归结果一致。因而在引导金融资本向实体经济倾斜的同时,也应注意社会融资规模的合理调控。
In the 2016 government work report, the specific goal of increasing social financing scale was explicitly put forward for the first time. As a new macro-control indicator in the field of monetary policy, the important role of social financing scale is being highlighted. This paper uses the monthly data of social financing scale to measure the growth of real economy by deducting the gross domestic product of real estate and financial industry output, mainly using quantile regression method to deeply analyze the impact of social financing scale change on the overall distribution of real economy . The empirical analysis shows that the impact of social financing scale on the real economy is inverted U-shaped, which is consistent with the OLS regression results of the scale of social financing participation. Therefore, while guiding the financial capital to the real economy, we should also pay attention to the reasonable regulation and control of the scale of social financing.