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针对新船价格波动机理,通过分析船舶市场运行过程中影响新船价格的各种因素所占权重,以及这些因素作用下最终形成市场价格的过程,研究新船价格波动背后的形成过程和作用体系.首先,为解决多元数据求极值问题,提出动态粒子平衡的均匀采样方法,并在高维空间的单位超球面上生成权重方向向量,得到映射到不同方向向量上的投影序列.其次,为消除不平稳、不规则数据的影响,运用经验模态分解方法对投影序列进行处理,生成不同度量尺度下的平稳序列.再次,考虑到随机抽样的离散特性,以本征模函数与目标序列的判定系数为优化目标,加入了遗传算法得到在连续超球面上的优化结果.最后,通过对新船价格及其各相关因素的历史数据进行分析,得出拟合度较高的曲线及其所对应的各因素所占权重.分析表明该方法能够有效解决多元序列求极值和多元非平稳序列的相关性分析问题,能够综合考虑更多因素描述与新船价格的波动机理,为以后船舶价格预测提供一种新的方法.
In view of the fluctuation mechanism of new ship price, this paper studies the formation process and function system of the fluctuation of new ship price by analyzing the weight of various factors that affect the price of new ships during the operation of the ship market and the final formation of market price under these factors First of all, to solve the problem of obtaining the extreme value of multivariate data, a uniform sampling method of dynamic particle balance is proposed, and weight direction vectors are generated on unit hyperspheres of high dimensional space to obtain projection sequences mapped to different direction vectors.Secondly, Eliminate the influence of unsteady and irregular data and apply the empirical mode decomposition method to deal with the projection sequence to generate the stationary sequence under different measurement scales.Thirdly, considering the discrete characteristics of random sampling, taking the eigenmode function and the target sequence The coefficient of determination is the optimization goal, and the genetic algorithm is added to get the optimization results on the continuous hypersphere.Finally, by analyzing the historical data of the new ship price and its related factors, we get the curve with high fitting degree Corresponding to the weight of each factor.The analysis shows that this method can effectively solve the multi-element sequence seeking the extremum and multivariate non-stationary sequence Correlation analysis of the problem, can consider more factors that describe the mechanism of fluctuations in the price of new ship, to provide a new way to predict the future price of the ship.