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不断调整对外贸易方式结构、大力推进贸易方式转变,是我国未来在世界贸易激烈竞争中的重要举措。本文在对我国出口贸易方式结构进行考察的基础上,通过单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、方差分解分析等方法实证分析了1993-2011年贸易成本变化对我国贸易方式结构的影响效应。研究结果表明:贸易成本对一般贸易产品比重、加工贸易产品比重和其他贸易产品比重都有阻碍作用,贸易成本对一般贸易出口的影响要大于加工贸易和其他贸易,本结论对于降低我国贸易成本、优化出口贸易方式结构具有重要的启示意义。
The continuous adjustment of the structure of foreign trade and the vigorous promotion of changes in the mode of trade are important measures for our country’s future fierce competition in world trade. Based on the investigation of the structure of China’s export trade, this paper empirically analyzes the changes of trade cost between 1993 and 2011 on the trade patterns of our country, including unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis. Effect of structure effect. The results show that: the cost of trade hinders the proportion of general trade products, the proportion of processing trade products and the proportion of other trade products, and the impact of trade costs on general trade exports is greater than that of processing trade and other trade. This conclusion is very helpful to reduce the trade cost, Optimizing the structure of export trade has important implications.