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众多研究发现气候冲击引发的经济冲击是造成暴力冲突的重要原因,本文通过构建面板泊松模型考察了气候冲击对清末教案的影响。回归结果显示气候冲击对粮食收成与价格有显著作用,而后者又影响了教案的发生,据此可推断经济冲击是重要的传导途径。本文还分别考察了教案发生原因的两类假说,发现机会成本假说的解释力度优于俱乐部公共品假说。此外,本文还利用不同的回归模型与替代变量验证了结果的稳健性。
Numerous studies have found that the economic impact caused by climate shocks is an important cause of violent conflicts. This paper examines the influence of climate shocks on the lesson plans in late Qing Dynasty by constructing panel Poisson model. The regression results show that climate shocks have a significant effect on grain yields and prices, and the latter has affected the development of lesson plans. Therefore, it can be concluded that economic shocks are an important channel of transmission. This paper also separately examines two types of hypotheses about the causes of the lesson plans and finds that the explanation of the opportunity cost hypothesis is superior to the club public goods hypothesis. In addition, this paper also verifies the robustness of the results by using different regression models and substitution variables.