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基于B2气候变化情景数据,利用大气-植被相互作用模式AVIM2,模拟预测了1981–2040年中国成熟林植被和土壤固碳速率的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明,中国森林区域平均气温从1981年的7.8℃增加到2040年的9.0℃,森林区域降水量略有增加。成熟林植被碳总量从8.56 Pg C增加到9.7 Pg C,植被固碳速率在–0.054–0.076 Pg C·a–1之间波动,平均值为0.022 Pg C·a~(–1)。成熟林土壤碳总量从30.2 Pg C增加到30.72 Pg C,土壤固碳速率在–0.035–0.072 Pg C·a~(–1)之间波动,平均值为0.010 Pg C·a–1。虽然研究时段内中国植被和土壤固碳总量均没有显著变化趋势,但区域植被和土壤固碳速率对气候变化的响应具有显著空间差异。未来在气温增幅较大的东北和东南林区,特别是在东北的长白山林区,森林植被和土壤固碳速率将大大降低;而在气温增幅不大的西南林区南部和其他林区,植被和土壤固碳速率将提高。统计结果表明未来气候变暖不利于成熟林固碳。
Based on the data of B2 climate change scenarios, using the AVIM2 model of atmospheric-vegetation interaction, the spatio-temporal variations of carbon sequestration in mature vegetation and soil in China from 1981 to 2040 were predicted and their responses to climate change were simulated. The results show that the average temperature in the forest area of China increased from 7.8 ℃ in 1981 to 9.0 ℃ in 2040, and the precipitation in the forest area increased slightly. The total carbon in mature plantation increased from 8.56 Pg C to 9.7 Pg C, and the vegetation carbon sequestration rate fluctuated between -0.054 and 0.076 Pg C · a-1 with an average of 0.022 Pg C · a -1. The total carbon in mature soils increased from 30.2 Pg C to 30.72 Pg C, and the carbon sequestration rate fluctuated between -0.035 and -0.072 Pg C · a -1 with an average of 0.010 Pg C · a -1. Although the total amount of vegetation and soil total carbon fixation in China did not change significantly during the study period, there was a significant spatial difference in the response of regional vegetation and soil carbon sequestration to climate change. In the future, the rate of carbon sequestration in forest vegetation and soil will be greatly reduced in northeastern and southeastern forest areas where the temperature increases greatly, especially in the Changbai Mountain forest area in northeast China. In the southwestern part of southwest China and other forest areas where the temperature does not increase moderately, vegetation And soil carbon sequestration rate will increase. The statistical results show that the future climate warming is not conducive to mature forest carbon sequestration.