When Kim Jong Un came to power in Pyongyang last year, Western countries were anxious about the future of North Korea under the new leadership. But they can now feel a bit more relaxed as analysts say Pyongyang will continue to seek improvements in its relations with the West, as evidenced by the breakthrough made at a recent meeting between North Korea and the United States.
　　The meeting, held in Beijing in late February, was the first of its kind since Kim Jong Un took over the reins. Under the agreement reached at the meeting, North Korea will suspend its nuclear tests, long-range missile launches and uranium enrichment activities, and allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the moratorium on uranium enrichment. In return, the United States will provide food aid to North Korea, with an initial package of 240,000 tons of nutritious food.
　　 Sealing the deal
　　The latest agreement between North Korea and the United States showed North Korea’s new leader intends to implement more open policies, said Shi Yongming, a research fellow on Asia-Pacific studies with the China Institute of International Studies.
　　“Though bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang on the nuclear issue began last year when late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ran the country, Kim Jong Un chose to continue what is good, revealing a sunny picture,” Shi said.
　　Moreover, domestic economic policy adjustments carried out by the new leader will provide possibilities for greater openness in North Korea, he said.
　　North Korea’s official news agency recently reported that Pyongyang has amended its laws to attract more outside investment for economic development.
　　Given Pyongyang’s commitment to building a prosperous country, it needs a peaceful regional environment, which might be another reason for the recent agreement between North Korea and the United States, Shi said.
　　“The agreement accords with their different needs,” he said. “For Pyongyang, besides the food aid, it wants the talks to be continued. In the meantime, the United States now focuses its attention on Iran and Syria. In an election year, the immediate goal of Washington is that Pyongyang doesn’t cause any trouble.”
　　Zhan Debin, a researcher of Korean studies with the Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade, said the deal could help Kim Jong Un reinforce his domestic political position. For Kim Jong Un, who took office only a few months ago, the most urgent issue is to ensure adequate food for the people. North Korea most often needs food assistance in spring, Zhan said.
　　The U.S.-North Korean deal was welcomed by parties concerned. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described Pyongyang’s move as a “modest first step in the right direc- tion” at a Senate hearing on February 29, the day the deal was announced.
　　 Easing tensions
　　Some observers say the deal between Washington and Pyongyang might eventually lead to the resumption of the six-party talks, a framework involving North Korea, the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia aiming at ending North Korea’s nuclear program through a negotiating process.
　　Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said on March 1 China is willing to strive with all other concerned parties to continue advancing the six-party talks process.
　　North Korea abandoned the talks in 2009. But 2012 is an election year for several parties in the talks. Substantial progress cannot be expected before presidential elections in the United States and South Korea at the end of the year.
　　“The tension-easing move between the United States and North Korea is helpful for restarting the six-party talks, but it is impossible to restart the talks immediately. The resumption of the talks partly depends on the election results of the United States and South Korea, especially the latter,” said Shi.
　　At present, Seoul is reluctant to restart the talks because of its hard-line policy toward Pyongyang, he said. Since South Korean President Lee Myung Bak took power in 2008, Seoul has toughened up on Pyongyang. Lee gave up on the reconciliatory Sunshine Policy of his predecessors Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun and adopted a more aggressive stance toward North Korea.
　　Pyongyang doesn’t want to have talks with the Lee administration either, and it hopes for a change in South Korea’s policy after its presidential election, Shi said.
　　The recent deal set the stage for further improvements in U.S.-North Korean ties, but it did not mark a substantial change, Zhan said.
　　Zhang Liangui, a professor of international studies with the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, is more cautious.
　　“The final goal of Washington is permanently dismantling North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, while Pyongyang aims at normalizing its relations with the United States and demanding that the world deal with it as a nuclear power. Presently, both are impossible,”Zhang said to Beijing Review.
　　Though no substantial progress was made, Pyongyang showed Washington that it is possible for the two to reach certain agreements, and then bilateral talks could continue, he said.
　　Even if the recent deal could not force Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program, it at least could reduce Pyongyang’s threat to the continental United States since North Korea promised to freeze the development of its long-range missile program, Zhang added.
　　 Lingering doubts
　　Western media reported there are still doubts in Washington over Pyongyang’s good faith in denuclearization. They said a pattern has emerged in U.S.-North Korean relations–North Korea promises to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for U.S. food aid or other concessions. The United States fears it could end up “buying the same horse twice” if North Korea eventually accelerates work on nuclear weapons.
　　“I think it is unlikely for Pyongyang to do that. The political consequence is too severe for the young new leader. The economic cost is also huge. It needs two and a half years to restart the nuclear program once it is suspended,” said Shi.
　　North Korea will not take that move unless there are extremely unfriendly actions from Washington or Seoul, he said.
　　Not long ago, anti-Pyongyang posters were found in South Korean military barracks, which caused heightened tensions between the two neighbors. The regular joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises are also believed to fuel instability on the Korean Peninsula.
　　In 2005, members of the six-party talks released a joint document on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, known as the September 19 Joint Statement. The statement reaffirmed the goal of verifiable denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner.
　　“The progress made in 2005 was a result of then Roh’s policy of engagement with North Korea,” Shi said. “Later, however, U.S. financial sanctions on Pyongyang and the tough policy of the Lee administration forced Pyongyang’s retrogression on its nuclear stance.”
　　“As chair of the six-party talks, China has played a balancing role in resolving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue,” Shi said.“Whenever there are overreactions by any party China tries to pull it back to the right track so that the parties can solve problems through peaceful talks. Whether in the sixparty talks or the bilateral dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington, China has done its best to coordinate with other parties concerned to facilitate progress.”
　　“Though bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang on the nuclear issue began last year when late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ran the country, Kim Jong Un chose to continue what is good, revealing a sunny picture.”
　　— Shi Yongming, a research fellow on Asia-Pacific studies with the China Institute of International Studies