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当下的中国经济,既存在着某些高端产能的供给不足问题,也存在着绝对的产能过剩尤其是低端产能过剩的问题,还面临着信贷扩张等原因导致的企业部门高杠杆问题。鉴于银行在中国融资体制的重要角色,在去产能中去杠杆就要把控好银行及相关金融机构的信贷总量和杠杆风险。建立健全各类企业的直接融资和资本金补充渠道,降低对银行借贷的过度依赖,对降低杠杆率也是非常重要的。在淘汰落后产能的同时,要推动国内产业优化重组、规避银行业过度扩张和无序竞争。用政府部门(尤其是中央政府)杠杆率的上升、总需求的扩大对冲企业去杠杆引发的经济下行压力,统筹做好供给侧结构性改革的加减法,可能进一步推动中国经济企稳向好。
The current Chinese economy has both the problem of under-supply of some high-end production capacity, the problem of overcapacity in particular, overcapacity at low end, and the high level of leverage in the enterprise sector due to credit expansion. In view of the important role of banks in China’s financing system, de-leveraging in de-capacity management should control the total credit and leverage risks of banks and related financial institutions. Establishing and perfecting direct financing and capital supplement channels for all kinds of enterprises and reducing over-reliance on bank lending are also very important for lowering the leverage ratio. While eliminating backward production capacity, it is necessary to promote the optimization and reorganization of domestic industries and avoid over-expansion and disorderly competition in the banking industry. With the government departments (especially the central government) rising leverage, the expansion of aggregate demand hedging business deleveraging pressure caused by economic downturn, co-ordinating the supply side of the structural reform of the addition and subtraction, may further promote the Chinese economy stabilized.