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本文基于边际产业内贸易理论和平滑调整假说(SAH),运用贸易调整空间(TAS)模型和产业内贸易度量指数(S指数)等分析方法,利用1994～2007年的统计数据,对加入WTO前后中国土地密集型农产品的调整成本和调整压力进行了不同层面的分析、测度和对比。研究结果表明,与加入WTO前相比,贸易自由化使中国土地密集型农产品面临更大的收缩性调整压力,其中以棉花和植物油为最;从不同的要素相对密集度层面考量,位列资本相对调整压力前三位的分别是棉花、大豆和植物油;位列劳动以及土地相对调整压力前三位的分别是棉花、植物油和大豆以及大豆、植物油和玉米。不同于已有的从粮食安全、比较优势等角度的研究,本文的分析基于贸易引致的生产要素调整成本和调整压力的测度和比较,为后过渡期内中国农产品贸易和保护政策的制定提供了一个新的分析视角和新的政策选择参考。
Based on the theory of SAIC and SAH, using the analytical methods of trade adjustment space (TAS) and intra-industry trade index (S-index) and other statistical methods, China’s land-intensive agricultural product adjustment costs and adjust the pressure at different levels of analysis, measurement and comparison. The results show that, compared with before the accession to the WTO, China’s land-intensive agricultural products are facing greater contractionary adjustment pressure, with cotton and vegetable oil as the most; from the perspective of the relative density of different factors, ranked capital The top three relative adjustment pressures are cotton, soybean and vegetable oil respectively; the top three ranked labor and land relative adjustment pressures are cotton, vegetable oil and soybeans, as well as soybeans, vegetable oils and corn. Different from the existing researches on food security and comparative advantage, the analysis of this paper provides a measure and comparison based on trade-induced adjustment of production factors and adjustment pressure, which provides the formulation of China’s agricultural trade and protection policies in the post-transition period A new analytical perspective and new policy options reference.