Regional Reassurance

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  On August 28, the second ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) kicked off in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei. In attendance were defense ministers and senior defense officials from the 10-member ASEAN bloc, along with their eight AsiaPacific dialogue partners—namely, China, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.
  The event drew a flood of attention due to current complications in the regional security environment. The United States has adopted a “rebalancing” strategy in the Asia-Pacific region over the past two years. China has been involved in heated territorial disputes with Japan and several ASEAN countries. Some ASEAN countries have increasingly expressed feelings of insecurity due to the tensions, which have caused a divergence of opinions in terms of diplomatic and defense policies among them.
  In addition to threats from terrorism, extremism, pirates and cross-border crimes, currently, ASEAN countries have two major security concerns. For one thing, they are concerned whether China will seek control over the South China Sea. As China strengthens, it has revealed a more progressive face in dealing with strategic and diplomatic situations in the region. In addition, the U.S. “pivot to Asia,” interpreted as a move to maintain its dominance in the region, has aroused concern among ASEAN nations about the likelihood of confrontation between China and the United States, and whether they will be forced to take sides.
  These worries are a reflection of a profound change in the region. ASEAN feels increasingly fragmented as a quickly rising China confronts the United States’ deeprooted interests in the region. The bloc has become a target of competition between the two powers. But while ASEAN welcomes the U.S. military presence in the region, it is not willing to become a tool of U.S. attempts to contain China. It is trying to strike a balance between the two countries and hopes all sides can achieve win-win situation.
  During the ADMM-Plus meeting, China and the United States reaffirmed their political and security promises to ASEAN.


  Amid the escalating conflict in Syria, the U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel still made it to the meeting and paid visits to Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. He said the United States remained committed to a strategic focus toward the Asia-Pacific despite budget pressures and Middle East distractions. This was his second journey to Southeast Asia within three months. Hagel spoke highly of the new model of militaryto-military cooperation with the Philippines called “rotational presence” and declared a 50-percent increase in military education and training programs in the region. He added the United States would increase defense trade, share American military technology and expertise with Southeast Asian nations, and standardize humanitarian disaster relief operations.   At the meeting, Hagel warned his counterparts that actions at sea to advance territorial claims “increase the risk of confrontation, undermine regional stability and dim the prospects for diplomacy.”
  The unexpected rise of territorial disputes on the South China Sea between China and several ASEAN countries in 2010 has been cited as a result of the U.S. decision to carry out the rebalancing strategy toward the Asia-Pacific. In order to justify its return to Asia and more closely contain China, the United States has taken advantage of the relatively tense situation on the South China Sea. It has pushed for the creation of a code of conduct to avoid direct confrontation with China.
  China simultaneously carried out a new round of ASEAN-related political, military and diplomatic actions in Beijing and Brunei. It reaffirmed that the new administration would give top priority to ASEAN when handling diplomatic ties with its neighboring countries. China’s State Councilor and Defense Minister Chang Wanquan stated in Brunei that China is an avowed participant and contributor to Asia-Pacific security. China actively participates in the practical cooperation of the ADMM-Plus mechanism and is dedicated to enhancing joint capabilities to confront threats and challenges.
  To celebrate the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the China-ASEAN strategic partnership, the Special China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in Beijing on August 29. The two sides made joint efforts to cool down disputes over the South China Sea while seeking new ways toward a bilateral cooperation.
  They decided to officially kick off consultations on the code of conduct this September in Suzhou, a city on the east coast of China. China held that all parties facing territorial disputes over the South China Sea should have “realistic expectations” and take “a gradual approach” to a proposed code of conduct, adding that confrontation was not a favored option.
  Most ASEAN countries realize they cannot allow South China Sea disputes to escalate to damage the organization or deflect regional peace and stability. Cambodia, Brunei, Thailand and Malaysia have resisted the Philippines’ plan to turn ASEAN against China on the South China Sea issue. Viet Nam, a party directly involved in the matter, also opposed the Philippines’ provocations. The ASEAN defense ministers’ meeting, held on August 28, right before the ADMM-Plus meeting, reaffirmed their stance of “no first use of force” while encouraging practical measures to ease tensions.   ASEAN can find some relief as both China and the United States have now expressed intentions to avoid escalating competition in Southeast Asia. Chang met with Hagel, emphasizing that the two countries should maintain dialogue and strengthen mutual trust while actively developing bilateral defense and military ties. Earlier in mid-August, Chang paid a visit to the United States as China’s new defense minister. During the visit, the two sides identified the direction of building a military relationship that falls under the framework of a new type of relations between major powers.
  Attempts to achieve positive interac- tions between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the Asia-Pacific region involving ASEAN countries have already been underway. In 2012, China was invited to observe the Cobra Gold multilateral joint militaries exercise which was led by the United States and held in Thailand. The Chinese Navy is invited to participate in the scheduled 2014 U.S.-organized Rim of the Pacific exercises, the biggest multinational maritime exercise. The first China-U.S. joint military exercises on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to be held in Hawaii this November is also expected to produce a demonstrative effect for Southeast Asia.
  Historically, Southeast Asian countries have long been at the frontlines of confrontation between major powers. Used as pawns in wars between great powers, they suffered enormously from the horrors of war. When ASEAN, an organization founded in 1967, emerged out of the shadow of the Cold War, it put forth the principles of achieving agreement through consultation and peaceful cooperation. On one hand, it has sought strength through unity; on the other, it has taken the initiative to coordinate with major powers. It has indeed made remarkable achievements.
  ASEAN is now standing at a new historical juncture. Can the organization negotiate the pitfalls of being in the middle of competition between China and the United States? There are risks involved, but any arising conflicts can be mitigated.
  Competition between China and the United States is inevitable in terms of geostrategic interests. However, the consensus on both sides to jointly build a new type of relationship among major powers and their common interest in maintaining peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific have cemented a mutual goal for their actions in Southeast Asia. In the long term, ASEAN will ultimately benefit.
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