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验前分布的确定是运用Bayes方法进行系统可靠性评估的重要前提。在对导弹系统进行可靠性评估时,大量的相似产品信息是不可忽视的重要验前信息。基于相似产品信息的存在性。研究了利用相似产品的信息采用加权融合确定可靠度验前分布的方法。并针对导弹寿命服从Weibull分布的可靠性试验结果,给出应用Bayes方法评估新导弹系统可靠性的计算公式。最后,通过一个实例证明了该方法的有效性。
The pre-test distribution is an important precondition for Bayesian system reliability assessment. In the reliability assessment of missile systems, a large number of similar product information can not be ignored important pre-test information. Based on the existence of similar product information. The method to determine the pre-test distribution of reliability by weighted fusion is studied using the information of similar products. According to the reliability test result of Weibull distribution that the missile life obeys, the formula to evaluate the reliability of the new missile system by Bayes method is given. Finally, an example shows the effectiveness of the method.